IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Holy Cross
Patriot League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.7	#206
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.2	#349
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#233

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#187

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.8%	13.0%	5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.7	15.4

.500 or above	49.7%	54.4%	26.1%
.500 or above in Conference	64.8%	67.7%	49.7%
Conference Champion	14.6%	16.1%	7.1%
Last Place in Conference	7.0%	5.8%	13.0%

First Four	2.4%	2.5%	2.1%
First Round	10.6%	11.9%	4.4%
Second Round	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.2	0.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.9	0.1 - 2.0
Quad 2	0.4 - 2.2	0.5 - 4.2
Quad 3	3.4 - 6.0	3.9 - 10.2
Quad 4	11.5 - 5.4	15.4 - 15.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	324	Sacred Heart	W	68-61	84%
Nov 10, 2018	19	@ Michigan	L	54-70	4%
Nov 13, 2018	47	@ Providence	L	58-70	8%
Nov 16, 2018	222	Stony Brook	W	64-63	53%
Nov 18, 2018	284	Siena	W	65-61	64%
Nov 20, 2018	278	@ Albany	W	64-61	52%
Nov 28, 2018	77	@ Harvard	L	58-67	14%
Dec 01, 2018	252	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	70-68	68%
Dec 04, 2018	154	@ Massachusetts	L	64-67	30%
Dec 08, 2018	103	Rhode Island	L	61-68	38%
Dec 20, 2018	162	Canisius	L	65-68	51%
Dec 22, 2018	284	Siena	W	65-61	72%
Dec 30, 2018	133	@ Iona	L	67-72	25%
Jan 03, 2019	300	@ Loyola Maryland	W	67-62	57%
Jan 06, 2019	260	@ Navy	W	63-60	50%
Jan 09, 2019	185	Lehigh	L	68-70	55%
Jan 12, 2019	293	Lafayette	W	69-64	73%
Jan 14, 2019	171	@ Bucknell	L	67-69	33%
Jan 19, 2019	300	Loyola Maryland	W	67-62	75%
Jan 23, 2019	216	@ Army	W	68-67	42%
Jan 26, 2019	260	Navy	W	63-60	69%
Jan 30, 2019	223	@ Boston University	W	65-64	43%
Feb 02, 2019	242	@ American	W	65-63	47%
Feb 06, 2019	216	Army	W	68-67	61%
Feb 10, 2019	293	@ Lafayette	W	69-64	55%
Feb 13, 2019	209	Colgate	W	65-64	61%
Feb 16, 2019	171	Bucknell	L	67-69	51%
Feb 18, 2019	223	Boston University	W	65-64	64%
Feb 24, 2019	185	@ Lehigh	L	68-70	36%
Feb 27, 2019	209	@ Colgate	W	65-64	42%
Mar 02, 2019	242	American	W	65-63	65%
Projected Record						15.4 - 15.6	9.8 - 8.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	4.0	3.2	2.3	0.9	0.3		14.6	1st
2nd											0.2	1.8	4.3	4.4	2.2	0.6	0.1				13.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.4	5.1	4.0	1.3	0.2	0.0					13.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.4	5.2	3.2	0.6	0.0							11.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.7	2.9	0.6	0.0								10.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.9	4.1	2.7	0.5	0.0									9.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.2	1.6	4.2	2.9	0.4	0.0										9.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.3	1.9	3.3	1.9	0.3												7.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.2	1.5	0.2	0.0												5.9	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0													4.1	10th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.8	2.6	4.7	6.8	8.4	9.5	10.4	11.2	10.9	10.0	8.6	6.4	3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
16-2	96.9%	2.3		2.2	0.1
15-3	85.0%	3.2		2.3	0.9	0.0
14-4	62.6%	4.0		2.4	1.4	0.2	0.0
13-5	33.0%	2.8		1.0	1.1	0.6	0.1
12-6	10.0%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.4%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.6%	14.6		9.3	3.9	1.2	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		77.3%	72.3%	5.0%	11.8					0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0	0.1		18.0%
17-1	0.9%		58.3%	55.2%	3.1%	12.9									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.4		6.8%
16-2	2.3%		53.3%	52.7%	0.6%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	1.1		1.3%
15-3	3.7%		39.4%	39.4%		14.2												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	2.2
14-4	6.4%		31.0%	31.0%	0.0%	14.6												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.4	4.4		0.0%
13-5	8.6%		22.8%	22.8%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	0.5	6.7
12-6	10.0%		15.8%	15.8%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	8.5
11-7	10.9%		10.4%	10.4%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	9.7
10-8	11.2%		6.5%	6.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	10.4
9-9	10.4%		4.6%	4.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	9.9
8-10	9.5%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.3	9.3
7-11	8.4%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.3
6-12	6.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	6.7
5-13	4.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
4-14	2.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
3-15	1.8%																							1.8
2-16	0.9%																							0.9
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.8%	11.8%	0.1%	14.8					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.3	3.6	4.1	88.2		0.1%